Flimsy Sanity: New Hampshire Recount

Flimsy Sanity

In individuals, insanity is rare; but in groups, parties, nations and epochs, it is the rule. - Friedrich Nietzsche

Friday, January 11, 2008

New Hampshire Recount

Kucinich will pay for recount.
Kucinich alluded to online reports alleging disparities around the state between hand-counted ballots, which tended to favor Sen. Barack Obama, and machine-counted ones that tended to favor Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton. He also noted the difference between pre-election polls, which indicated Obama would win, and Clinton's triumph by a 39 percent to 37 percent margin.


There is no strategic way that Obama could demand a recount without damaging his campaign and looking like a whiner. Good for Kucinich even though the general public will say he is insane asking for a recount when he only received 2% of the vote. He is not claiming he is a victor, he is saying that fraud will not be as easy as it was in the last elections.

The following came from Censored News and explains why the Bush 2004 victory was such a miracle:
Exit polls are the gold standard of vote count validity internationally. Since exit polls ask people as they emerge from the polling station whom they just voted for, they are not projections as are polls taken in the months, weeks or days before an election. They are not subject to faulty memory, voter capriciousness (voters voting differently than they indicated to a pollster previously), or erroneous projections about who will actually turn up to vote. Pollsters know who turned up to vote because the voters are standing there in front of the exit pollsters. Because of these characteristics, exit polls are exceptionally accurate. They are so accurate that in Germany, for example, the winners are announced based on the exit polls, with paper ballots being counted as a backup check against the exit polls.15 Exit polls are used, for this reason, as markers of fraud.16

GOP pollster Dick Morris further affirms exit polling’s validity. Immediately after the 2004 election he wrote:

Exit polls are almost never wrong. They eliminate the two major potential fallacies in survey research by correctly separating actual voters from those who pretend they will cast ballots but never do and by substituting actual observation for guesswork in judging the relative turnout of different parts of the state…

To screw up one exit poll is unheard of. To miss six of them is incredible. It boggles the imagination how pollsters could be that incompetent and invites speculation that more than honest error was at play here.

Confounded and suspicious of the results, Morris resorted to advancing the bizarre theory that there must have been a conspiracy among the networks to suppress the Bush vote in the west by issuing exit poll results that were far off from the final tallies.

A number of different statisticians have examined the 2004 election results. University of Pennsylvania statistician Steve Freeman, Ph.D., most notably, analyzed the exit polls of the swing states of Pennsylvania, Ohio and Florida and concluded that the odds of the exit polls being as far off as they were are 250 million to one. Exit polls in Florida had Kerry leading by 1.7 points and by 2.4 points in Ohio. These exit poll figures were altered at 1:30 a.m. November 3, 2004 on CNN to conform to the “official” tally. In the end, Kerry lost Florida by 5% and Ohio by 2.5%. This is a net shift of 6.7 points in Florida and 4.9 points in Ohio in Bush’s favor, well beyond the margin of error. By exit poll standards, this net shift was unbelievable.

A team at the University of California at Berkeley, headed by sociology professor Michael Hout, found a highly suspicious pattern in which Bush received 260,000 more votes in those Florida precincts that used electronic voting machines than past voting patterns would indicate compared to those precincts that used optical scan read votes where past voting patterns held.

The Edison-Mitofsky polling group that conducted the National Exit Poll (NEP) issued a 77-page report on January 19, 2005 to account for why their exit polls were so unexpectedly far off.21 Edison-Mitofsky rule out sampling error as the problem and indicate that systemic bias was responsible. They concluded that their exit polls were wrong because Kerry voters must have been more willing to talk to their poll workers than Bush voters and because their poll workers were too young and inexperienced. Edison-Mitofsky offer no evidence indicating that their conclusion about more chatty Kerry voters actually occurred, merely that such a scenario would explain the discrepancy. In fact, as nine statisticians who conducted an evaluation of the Edison-Mitofsky data and analysis point out, Bush voters appeared to be slightly more willing to talk to exit pollsters than Kerry voters. This would make the exit polls’ discrepancy with the official tallies even more pronounced. In addition, the Edison-Mitofsky explanation fails to explain why exit polls were only exceptionally wrong in the swing states.

3 Comments:

  • At 4:06 PM, Blogger ryk said…

    When you can no longer trust election results, is it still a democracy?

     
  • At 8:00 PM, Anonymous R J Adams said…

    There was no doubt in my mind that Bush never won in 2004. The very fact he scraped home in 2000 (if you can call it that), coupled with the additional dissent in the country by 2004, made his winning a statistical impossibility. Rigging the vote is now common practice, not just in America. Computerized voting machines make it a cinch to do. Hell, the machine/software manufacturers are in the Republican's pocket. They may be aware that another Repub win this time would raise too many questions, but Hillary Clinton will do. She'll not raise problems for the corporates. How can she, they're financing her?
    To answer Ryk's question: no, it isn't.
    Lots more on this subject at: www.blackboxvoting.org

     
  • At 3:12 AM, Blogger Flimsy Sanity said…

    ryk: No.
    RJ: I think the motive behind getting Hillary in is so that the wavering Republicans will come back to the fold. No one is hated as much as the Clintons - even though their actions resemble the Republicans more than Democrats. Of course the whole election thing is just theatre since things are rigged. Oh well, democracy was great while it lasted - welcome to Orwell's 1984.

     

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